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As we know, the construction planning process is always far from perfect. In the past, sometimes the project schedule was unrealistic, resulting in an average of 45% of the work promised in a week being actually completed at a later date than the set deadline. Constraints / withdrawals from the schedule like this make the subcontractor wait for the previous task to be completed first, before the next stage of work is continued. Therefore, to fix this problem, our team has implemented a Pull Planning process, which is coordinated on a weekly basis, with this method we estimate scheduling in reverse so that the duration of time can be measured effectively and optimally.
According to Krajewski (2010) "to develop the probability distribution for project completion time, we assume that the duration time of one activity does not depend on that of any other activity. This assumption enables us to estimate the mean and variance of the probability distribution of the time duration of the entire project by summing the duration times and variance of the activities along the critical path ". This means that to develop the probability of a project it can be assumed by adding up all the optimal durations as well as the variants on the critical path.